2026 Arizona · U.S. House

AZ-02 House race odds

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Eli Crane a 68% chance of winning the 2026 race for AZ-02 over Democrat Jonathan Nez (Kalshi 68%, Polymarket 68%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Jonathan Nez (D)32%
Eli Crane (R) 68%
Market rating
Lean R
Kalshi (D / R)
32.0% / 68.0%
Polymarket (D / R)
32.2% / 67.8%
Gap between exchanges
0.2 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 2Oct 2
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Oct 2 – Oct 2

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Eli Crane (R)68.0%$13K
Jonathan Nez (D)32.0%$8K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Eli Crane (R)67.8%$3K
Jonathan Nez (D)32.2%$4K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 AZ-02 House race?

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Eli Crane a 68% chance of winning the 2026 race for AZ-02 over Democrat Jonathan Nez (Kalshi 68%, Polymarket 68%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 32%, Republicans 68%. Polymarket: Democrats 32%, Republicans 68%. The two exchanges differ by 0.2 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Arizona races in 2026

Closest House races in 2026

Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 AZ-02 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/az-2/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.