2026 Arizona · U.S. House

AZ-05 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Mark Lamb a 90% chance of winning the 2026 race for AZ-05 over Democrat Elizabeth Lee (Kalshi 89%, Polymarket 92%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Elizabeth Lee (D)10%
Mark Lamb (R) 90%
Market rating
Safe R
Kalshi (D / R)
11.0% / 89.0%
Polymarket (D / R)
8.5% / 91.5%
Gap between exchanges
2.5 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds fell 3.7 points over the past 3 months, from 13% to 10%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Mark Lamb (R)89.0%$15K
Elizabeth Lee (D)11.0%$7K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Mark Lamb (R)91.5%$21K
Elizabeth Lee (D)8.5%$17K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 AZ-05 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Mark Lamb a 90% chance of winning the 2026 race for AZ-05 over Democrat Elizabeth Lee (Kalshi 89%, Polymarket 92%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 11%, Republicans 89%. Polymarket: Democrats 9%, Republicans 92%. The two exchanges differ by 2.5 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds have risen 0.7 points since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Arizona races in 2026

Closest House races in 2026

Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 AZ-05 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/az-5/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.