2026 Governor
Arizona governor race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Katie Hobbs a 89% chance of winning the 2026 Arizona governor race over Republican Andy Biggs (Kalshi 88%, Polymarket 89%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 88.1% / 11.9%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 89.4% / 10.6%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.3 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Katie Hobbs (D) | 88.1% | $345K |
| Andy Biggs (R) | 11.9% | $278K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Katie Hobbs (D) | 89.4% | $43K |
| Andy Biggs (R) | 10.6% | $47K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Arizona governor race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Katie Hobbs a 89% chance of winning the 2026 Arizona governor race over Republican Andy Biggs (Kalshi 88%, Polymarket 89%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 88%, Republicans 12%. Polymarket: Democrats 89%, Republicans 11%. The two exchanges differ by 1.3 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Arizona races in 2026
- AZ-01 HouseD 79%
- AZ-02 HouseR 68%
- AZ-03 HouseD 99%
- AZ-04 HouseD 98%
- AZ-05 HouseR 90%
- AZ-06 HouseD 83%
- AZ-07 HouseD 99%
- AZ-08 HouseR 84%
- AZ-09 HouseR 95%
Closest governor races in 2026
Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Arizona governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/arizona/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.