2026 Arizona · U.S. House

AZ-06 House race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat JoAnna Mendoza a 83% chance of winning the 2026 race for AZ-06 over Republican Juan Ciscomani (Kalshi 84%, Polymarket 83%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

JoAnna Mendoza (D)83%
Juan Ciscomani (R) 17%
Market rating
Likely D
Kalshi (D / R)
84.0% / 16.0%
Polymarket (D / R)
82.5% / 17.5%
Gap between exchanges
1.5 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds rose 3.3 points over the past 3 months, from 80% to 83%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
JoAnna Mendoza (D)84.0%$8K
Juan Ciscomani (R)16.0%$15K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
JoAnna Mendoza (D)82.5%$4K
Juan Ciscomani (R)17.5%$8K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 AZ-06 House race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat JoAnna Mendoza a 83% chance of winning the 2026 race for AZ-06 over Republican Juan Ciscomani (Kalshi 84%, Polymarket 83%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 84%, Republicans 16%. Polymarket: Democrats 83%, Republicans 18%. The two exchanges differ by 1.5 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Arizona races in 2026

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 AZ-06 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/az-6/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.