2026 Arizona · U.S. House
AZ-08 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Abraham Hamadeh a 83% chance of winning the 2026 race for AZ-08 over Democrat Bernadette Greene-Placentia (Kalshi 82%, Polymarket 84%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 17.6% / 82.4%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 15.8% / 84.2%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.8 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds fell 4.1 points over the past 3 months, from 21% to 17%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Abe Hamadeh (R) | 82.4% | $2K |
| Bernadette Greene-Placentia (D) | 17.6% | $2K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Abraham Hamadeh (R) | 84.2% | $5K |
| Bernadette Greene-Placentia (D) | 15.8% | $7K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 AZ-08 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Abraham Hamadeh a 83% chance of winning the 2026 race for AZ-08 over Democrat Bernadette Greene-Placentia (Kalshi 82%, Polymarket 84%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 18%, Republicans 82%. Polymarket: Democrats 16%, Republicans 84%. The two exchanges differ by 1.8 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 1.0 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Arizona races in 2026
- Arizona GovernorD 89%
- AZ-01 HouseD 79%
- AZ-02 HouseR 68%
- AZ-03 HouseD 99%
- AZ-04 HouseD 98%
- AZ-05 HouseR 90%
- AZ-06 HouseD 83%
- AZ-07 HouseD 99%
- AZ-09 HouseR 95%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 AZ-08 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/az-8/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.