2026 Pennsylvania · U.S. House
PA-04 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Madeleine Dean a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for PA-04 over Republican Aurora Stuski (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 98%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 97.1% / 2.9%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 98.2% / 1.8%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.0 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 3.1 points over the past 3 months, from 95% to 98%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Madeleine Dean (D) | 97.1% | $2K |
| Aurora Stuski (R) | 2.9% | $2K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Madeleine Dean (D) | 98.2% | $7K |
| Aurora Stuski (R) | 1.8% | $15K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 PA-04 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Madeleine Dean a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for PA-04 over Republican Aurora Stuski (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 98%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. Polymarket: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. The two exchanges differ by 1.0 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 2.9 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Pennsylvania races in 2026
- Pennsylvania GovernorD 97%
- PA-01 HouseR 65%
- PA-10 HouseD 81%
- PA-11 HouseR 94%
- PA-12 HouseD 98%
- PA-13 HouseR 96%
- PA-14 HouseR 98%
- PA-15 HouseR 96%
- PA-16 HouseR 93%
- PA-17 HouseD 97%
- PA-02 HouseD 98%
- PA-03 HouseD 98%
- PA-05 HouseD 98%
- PA-06 HouseD 97%
- PA-07 HouseD 85%
- PA-08 HouseD 68%
- PA-09 HouseR 97%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 PA-04 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/pa-4/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.