2026 Governor
Pennsylvania governor race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Josh Shapiro a 97% chance of winning the 2026 Pennsylvania governor race over Republican Stacy Garrity (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 97.3% / 2.7%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 97.4% / 2.6%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.1 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Shapiro (D) | 97.3% | $105K |
| Stacy Garrity (R) | 2.7% | $411K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Shapiro (D) | 97.4% | $8K |
| Stacy Garrity (R) | 2.6% | $42K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Pennsylvania governor race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Josh Shapiro a 97% chance of winning the 2026 Pennsylvania governor race over Republican Stacy Garrity (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. Polymarket: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. The two exchanges differ by 0.1 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Pennsylvania races in 2026
- PA-01 HouseR 65%
- PA-10 HouseD 81%
- PA-11 HouseR 94%
- PA-12 HouseD 96%
- PA-13 HouseR 96%
- PA-14 HouseR 98%
- PA-15 HouseR 96%
- PA-16 HouseR 93%
- PA-17 HouseD 97%
- PA-02 HouseD 98%
- PA-03 HouseD 98%
- PA-04 HouseD 97%
- PA-05 HouseD 98%
- PA-06 HouseD 97%
- PA-07 HouseD 85%
- PA-08 HouseD 68%
- PA-09 HouseR 97%
Closest governor races in 2026
Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Pennsylvania governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/pennsylvania/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.