2026 Pennsylvania · U.S. House
PA-01 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Brian Fitzpatrick a 65% chance of winning the 2026 race for PA-01 over Democrat Bob Harvie (Kalshi 64%, Polymarket 66%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Lean R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 36.5% / 63.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 33.8% / 66.2%
- Gap between exchanges
- 2.7 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Fitzpatrick (R) | 63.5% | $28K |
| Bob Harvie (D) | 36.5% | $174K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Fitzpatrick (R) | 66.2% | $9K |
| Bob Harvie (D) | 33.8% | $6K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 PA-01 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Brian Fitzpatrick a 65% chance of winning the 2026 race for PA-01 over Democrat Bob Harvie (Kalshi 64%, Polymarket 66%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 37%, Republicans 64%. Polymarket: Democrats 34%, Republicans 66%. The two exchanges differ by 2.7 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Pennsylvania races in 2026
- Pennsylvania GovernorD 97%
- PA-10 HouseD 81%
- PA-11 HouseR 94%
- PA-12 HouseD 96%
- PA-13 HouseR 96%
- PA-14 HouseR 98%
- PA-15 HouseR 96%
- PA-16 HouseR 93%
- PA-17 HouseD 97%
- PA-02 HouseD 98%
- PA-03 HouseD 98%
- PA-04 HouseD 97%
- PA-05 HouseD 98%
- PA-06 HouseD 97%
- PA-07 HouseD 85%
- PA-08 HouseD 68%
- PA-09 HouseR 97%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 PA-01 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/pa-1/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.