2026 Pennsylvania · U.S. House
PA-11 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Lloyd Smucker a 94% chance of winning the 2026 race for PA-11 over Democrat Nancy Mannion (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 94%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 6.7% / 93.3%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 5.6% / 94.4%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.1 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Smucker | 92¢ | 90¢ | 94¢ | 91¢ | 0¢ |
| Nancy Mannion | 7¢ | 6¢ | 7¢ | 7¢ | ▼2¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Smucker | 94¢ | 94¢ | 94¢ | 94¢ | 0¢ |
| Nancy Mannion | 6¢ | 5¢ | 6¢ | 6¢ | ▼1¢ |
Price history
Democratic odds fell 4.5 points over the past 3 months, from 11% to 6%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Smucker (R) | 93.3% | $4K |
| Nancy Mannion (D) | 6.7% | $5K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Smucker (R) | 94.4% | $17K |
| Nancy Mannion (D) | 5.6% | $12K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 PA-11 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Lloyd Smucker a 94% chance of winning the 2026 race for PA-11 over Democrat Nancy Mannion (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 94%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 7%, Republicans 93%. Polymarket: Democrats 6%, Republicans 94%. The two exchanges differ by 1.1 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have fallen 1.1 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Pennsylvania races in 2026
- Pennsylvania GovernorD 97%
- PA-01 HouseR 65%
- PA-10 HouseD 81%
- PA-12 HouseD 98%
- PA-13 HouseR 96%
- PA-14 HouseR 98%
- PA-15 HouseR 96%
- PA-16 HouseR 93%
- PA-17 HouseD 97%
- PA-02 HouseD 98%
- PA-03 HouseD 98%
- PA-04 HouseD 98%
- PA-05 HouseD 98%
- PA-06 HouseD 97%
- PA-07 HouseD 85%
- PA-08 HouseD 68%
- PA-09 HouseR 96%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 PA-11 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/pa-11/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.