2026 North Carolina · U.S. House
NC-03 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Greg Murphy a 85% chance of winning the 2026 race for NC-03 over Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. (Kalshi 84%, Polymarket 86%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 16.0% / 84.0%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 13.6% / 86.4%
- Gap between exchanges
- 2.4 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Greg Murphy (R) | 84.0% | $3K |
| Raymond Smith Jr. (D) | 16.0% | $2K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Greg Murphy (R) | 86.4% | $17K |
| Raymond Smith Jr. (D) | 13.6% | $5K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 NC-03 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Greg Murphy a 85% chance of winning the 2026 race for NC-03 over Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. (Kalshi 84%, Polymarket 86%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 16%, Republicans 84%. Polymarket: Democrats 14%, Republicans 86%. The two exchanges differ by 2.4 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other North Carolina races in 2026
- NC-01 HouseD 61%
- NC-10 HouseR 94%
- NC-11 HouseD 65%
- NC-12 HouseD 98%
- NC-13 HouseR 84%
- NC-14 HouseR 88%
- NC-02 HouseD 99%
- NC-04 HouseD 96%
- NC-05 HouseR 87%
- NC-06 HouseR 92%
- NC-07 HouseR 83%
- NC-08 HouseR 96%
- NC-09 HouseR 77%
- North Carolina SenateD 95%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 NC-03 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/nc-3/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.