2026 North Carolina · U.S. House
NC-06 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Addison McDowell a 92% chance of winning the 2026 race for NC-06 over Democrat Cyril Jefferson (Kalshi 91%, Polymarket 93%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 9.2% / 90.8%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 7.5% / 92.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.7 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Addison McDowell (R) | 90.8% | $3K |
| Cyril Jefferson (D) | 9.2% | $6K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Addison McDowell (R) | 92.5% | $28K |
| Cyril Jefferson (D) | 7.5% | $22K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 NC-06 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Addison McDowell a 92% chance of winning the 2026 race for NC-06 over Democrat Cyril Jefferson (Kalshi 91%, Polymarket 93%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 9%, Republicans 91%. Polymarket: Democrats 8%, Republicans 93%. The two exchanges differ by 1.7 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other North Carolina races in 2026
- NC-01 HouseD 61%
- NC-10 HouseR 94%
- NC-11 HouseD 65%
- NC-12 HouseD 98%
- NC-13 HouseR 84%
- NC-14 HouseR 88%
- NC-02 HouseD 99%
- NC-03 HouseR 85%
- NC-04 HouseD 96%
- NC-05 HouseR 87%
- NC-07 HouseR 83%
- NC-08 HouseR 96%
- NC-09 HouseR 77%
- North Carolina SenateD 95%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 NC-06 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/nc-6/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.