2026 Louisiana · U.S. House
LA-05 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give the Republican a 94% chance of winning the 2026 race for LA-05 (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 94%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 6.5% / 93.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 5.8% / 94.2%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.7 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged over the past 3 months, at 6%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Republican candidate | 93.5% | $14K |
| Democratic candidate | 6.5% | $583 |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Republican candidate | 94.2% | $8K |
| Democratic candidate | 5.8% | $17K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 LA-05 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give the Republican a 94% chance of winning the 2026 race for LA-05 (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 94%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 7%, Republicans 93%. Polymarket: Democrats 6%, Republicans 94%. The two exchanges differ by 0.7 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 2.8 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Louisiana races in 2026
- LA-01 HouseR 97%
- LA-02 HouseD 99%
- LA-03 HouseR 96%
- LA-04 HouseR 95%
- LA-06 HouseR 94%
- Louisiana SenateR 93%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 LA-05 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/la-5/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.