2026 Massachusetts · U.S. House
MA-01 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Richard Neal a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for MA-01 (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 96.8% / 3.2%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 97.2% / 2.8%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.4 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Neal | 96¢ | 94¢ | 98¢ | 94¢ | 0¢ |
| Republican | 3¢ | 1¢ | 6¢ | 6¢ | 0¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Neal | 96¢ | 95¢ | 96¢ | 96¢ | — |
| Republican | 3¢ | 1¢ | 4¢ | 4¢ | 0¢ |
Price history
Democratic odds rose 2.5 points over the past 3 months, from 94% to 97%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Richard Neal (D) | 96.8% | $887 |
| Republican candidate | 3.2% | $672 |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Richard Neal (D) | 97.2% | $12K |
| Republican candidate | 2.8% | $44K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 MA-01 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Richard Neal a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for MA-01 (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 97%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. Polymarket: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. The two exchanges differ by 0.4 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 0.9 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Massachusetts races in 2026
- Massachusetts GovernorD 96%
- MA-02 HouseD 96%
- MA-03 HouseD 97%
- MA-04 HouseD 98%
- MA-05 HouseD 98%
- MA-06 HouseD 97%
- MA-07 HouseD 98%
- MA-08 HouseD 98%
- MA-09 HouseD 97%
- Massachusetts SenateD 98%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 MA-01 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ma-1/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.