2026 Senate
Massachusetts Senate race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Ed Markey a 98% chance of winning the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race over Republican John Deaton (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 98%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 98.6% / 1.4%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 98.1% / 1.9%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.4 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Markey | 99¢ | 99¢ | 99¢ | 99¢ | 0¢ |
| John Deaton | 1¢ | 1¢ | 2¢ | 1¢ | 0¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Markey | 98¢ | 98¢ | 98¢ | 98¢ | — |
| John Deaton | 2¢ | 1¢ | 2¢ | 3¢ | 0¢ |
Market activity
How much is trading, where the money is going, and the live order book.
Money flow · last 24 hours
Order book · Polymarket · Ed Markey
Loading the live order book…
Money waiting to buy (green) and sell (red) at each price. Refreshes every 30 seconds.
Trade tape
Connecting…| When | Exchange | Trade | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading trades… | ||||
Polymarket trades appear live. Kalshi trades are collected every 10 minutes for the most active contracts. Blue backs the Democrat, red the Republican.
Social pulse
Social data by
What social media is saying about the candidates, next to what the markets are betting.
- Interactions (24h)
- 86K
- People posting
- 66
- Sentiment
- 58% positive
- This week vs. last
- ▼ 49%
Top posts right now
Kenny Nguyen · 278K followers · tweet · 1d agoHey Massachusetts.. 🇺🇸
Who would you vote for in this November midterm election in your state?
Ed Markey who voted NO on the clarity act and NO on banning US Congress members on insider stock trading.
Attorney John De4K
John Deaton · 30K followers · tweet · 1d agoNo more kings. Ed Markey has been in office 53 years, longer than most kings in documented history. The only thing he has delivered is a slogan for his next term. That is why we need term limits. Stand up. Stand out.4K- John Deaton · 30K followers · tweet · 8h agoSTATEMENT ON LAW OFFICE VANDALISM & ED MARKEY’S RECKLESS POLITICS AND COWARDICE
Following a violent attack today at my East Providence law office; where a window was shattered while my employee was inside; I am holding E2K
WCVB Channel 5 Boston · 363K followers · youtube-video · 9h agoMarkey, Deaton clash over Medicaid cuts in Senate race1K
Price history
Democratic odds rose 2.4 points over the past 3 months, from 96% to 98%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Ed Markey (D) | 98.6% | $9K |
| John Deaton (R) | 1.4% | $14K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Ed Markey (D) | 98.1% | $35K |
| John Deaton (R) | 1.9% | $13K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Ed Markey a 98% chance of winning the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race over Republican John Deaton (Kalshi 99%, Polymarket 98%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. Polymarket: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. The two exchanges differ by 0.4 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Massachusetts races in 2026
- Massachusetts GovernorD 96%
- MA-01 HouseD 97%
- MA-02 HouseD 96%
- MA-03 HouseD 98%
- MA-04 HouseD 98%
- MA-05 HouseD 98%
- MA-06 HouseD 97%
- MA-07 HouseD 98%
- MA-08 HouseD 98%
- MA-09 HouseD 97%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Massachusetts Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/massachusetts/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.