2026 Governor
Massachusetts governor race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Maura Healey a 96% chance of winning the 2026 Massachusetts governor race over Republican Michael Minogue (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 97%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 95.3% / 4.7%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 97.0% / 3.0%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.7 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 2.8 points over the past 3 months, from 93% to 96%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Maura Healey (D) | 95.3% | $69K |
| Mike Minogue (R) | 4.7% | $538K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Maura Healey (D) | 97.0% | $35K |
| Michael Minogue (R) | 3.0% | $61K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Massachusetts governor race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Maura Healey a 96% chance of winning the 2026 Massachusetts governor race over Republican Michael Minogue (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 97%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 95%, Republicans 5%. Polymarket: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. The two exchanges differ by 1.7 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Massachusetts races in 2026
- MA-01 HouseD 97%
- MA-02 HouseD 96%
- MA-03 HouseD 97%
- MA-04 HouseD 98%
- MA-05 HouseD 98%
- MA-06 HouseD 97%
- MA-07 HouseD 98%
- MA-08 HouseD 98%
- MA-09 HouseD 97%
- Massachusetts SenateD 98%
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Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Massachusetts governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/massachusetts/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.