2026 North Dakota · U.S. House
ND-AL House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Julie Fedorchak a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for ND-AL over Democrat Trygve Hammer (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 2.1% / 97.9%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 2.4% / 97.6%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.4 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Julie Fedorchak (R) | 97.9% | $3K |
| Trygve Hammer (D) | 2.1% | $6K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Julie Fedorchak (R) | 97.6% | $43K |
| Trygve Hammer (D) | 2.4% | $17K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 ND-AL House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Julie Fedorchak a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for ND-AL over Democrat Trygve Hammer (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 2%, Republicans 98%. Polymarket: Democrats 2%, Republicans 98%. The two exchanges differ by 0.4 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
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Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 ND-AL House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/nd-al/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.