2026 Tennessee · U.S. House
TN-05 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Charlie Hatcher a 92% chance of winning the 2026 race for TN-05 over Democrat Chaz Molder (Kalshi 91%, Polymarket 92%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 9.2% / 90.8%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 7.5% / 92.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.7 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds fell 13.8 points over the past 3 months, from 22% to 8%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Hatcher (R) | 90.8% | $11K |
| Chaz Molder (D) | 9.2% | $26K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Hatcher (R) | 92.5% | $29K |
| Chaz Molder (D) | 7.5% | $37K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 TN-05 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Charlie Hatcher a 92% chance of winning the 2026 race for TN-05 over Democrat Chaz Molder (Kalshi 91%, Polymarket 92%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 9%, Republicans 91%. Polymarket: Democrats 8%, Republicans 92%. The two exchanges differ by 1.7 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Tennessee races in 2026
- Tennessee GovernorR 94%
- TN-01 HouseR 97%
- TN-02 HouseR 95%
- TN-03 HouseR 96%
- TN-04 HouseR 98%
- TN-06 HouseR 95%
- TN-07 HouseR 97%
- TN-08 HouseR 96%
- TN-09 HouseR 86%
- Tennessee SenateR 98%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 TN-05 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/tn-5/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.