2026 Governor
Tennessee governor race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Marsha Blackburn a 94% chance of winning the 2026 Tennessee governor race over Democrat Jerri Green (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 95%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 6.7% / 93.3%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 4.9% / 95.1%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.7 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Marsha Blackburn (R) | 93.3% | $14K |
| Jerri Green (D) | 6.7% | $50K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Marsha Blackburn (R) | 95.1% | $7K |
| Jerri Green (D) | 4.9% | $7K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Tennessee governor race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Marsha Blackburn a 94% chance of winning the 2026 Tennessee governor race over Democrat Jerri Green (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 95%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 7%, Republicans 93%. Polymarket: Democrats 5%, Republicans 95%. The two exchanges differ by 1.7 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Tennessee races in 2026
- TN-01 HouseR 97%
- TN-02 HouseR 95%
- TN-03 HouseR 96%
- TN-04 HouseR 98%
- TN-05 HouseR 91%
- TN-06 HouseR 95%
- TN-07 HouseR 95%
- TN-08 HouseR 95%
- TN-09 HouseR 86%
- Tennessee SenateR 98%
Closest governor races in 2026
Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Tennessee governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/tennessee/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.