2026 Senate
Tennessee Senate race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Bill Hagerty a 98% chance of winning the 2026 Tennessee Senate race over Democrat Marquita Bradshaw (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 98%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 2.8% / 97.2%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 2.1% / 97.9%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.7 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Hagerty | 97¢ | 96¢ | 98¢ | 96¢ | ▼1¢ |
| Marquita Bradshaw | 3¢ | 2¢ | 4¢ | 4¢ | ▲1¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Hagerty | 97¢ | 96¢ | 98¢ | 98¢ | — |
| Marquita Bradshaw | 2¢ | 1¢ | 3¢ | 4¢ | 0¢ |
Price history
Democratic odds fell 1.3 points over the past 3 months, from 4% to 2%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Bill Hagerty (R) | 97.2% | $10K |
| Marquita Bradshaw (D) | 2.8% | $32K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Bill Hagerty (R) | 97.9% | $20K |
| Marquita Bradshaw (D) | 2.1% | $11K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Tennessee Senate race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Bill Hagerty a 98% chance of winning the 2026 Tennessee Senate race over Democrat Marquita Bradshaw (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 98%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 3%, Republicans 97%. Polymarket: Democrats 2%, Republicans 98%. The two exchanges differ by 0.7 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Tennessee races in 2026
- Tennessee GovernorR 94%
- TN-01 HouseR 97%
- TN-02 HouseR 95%
- TN-03 HouseR 96%
- TN-04 HouseR 98%
- TN-05 HouseR 92%
- TN-06 HouseR 95%
- TN-07 HouseR 97%
- TN-08 HouseR 96%
- TN-09 HouseR 86%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Tennessee Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/tennessee/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.