2026 Kansas · U.S. House
KS-01 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Tracey Mann a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for KS-01 over Democrat Lauren Reinhold (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 96%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 3.5% / 96.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 4.5% / 95.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.0 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds fell 2.7 points over the past 3 months, from 7% to 4%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Tracey Mann (R) | 96.5% | $759 |
| Lauren Reinhold (D) | 3.5% | $2K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Tracey Mann (R) | 95.5% | $6K |
| Lauren Reinhold (D) | 4.5% | $14K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 KS-01 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Tracey Mann a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for KS-01 over Democrat Lauren Reinhold (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 96%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 3%, Republicans 97%. Polymarket: Democrats 5%, Republicans 96%. The two exchanges differ by 1.0 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have fallen 1.9 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Kansas races in 2026
- Kansas GovernorR 73%
- KS-02 HouseR 87%
- KS-03 HouseD 96%
- KS-04 HouseR 94%
- Kansas SenateR 68%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 KS-01 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ks-1/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.