2026 Kansas · U.S. House
KS-04 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Ron Estes a 94% chance of winning the 2026 race for KS-04 over Democrat Katy Tyndell (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 94%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 5.8% / 94.3%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 6.5% / 93.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.7 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Ron Estes (R) | 94.3% | $7K |
| Katy Tyndell (D) | 5.8% | $4K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Ron Estes (R) | 93.5% | $43K |
| Katy Tyndell (D) | 6.5% | $30K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 KS-04 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Ron Estes a 94% chance of winning the 2026 race for KS-04 over Democrat Katy Tyndell (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 94%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 6%, Republicans 94%. Polymarket: Democrats 6%, Republicans 94%. The two exchanges differ by 0.7 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Kansas races in 2026
- Kansas GovernorR 73%
- KS-01 HouseR 96%
- KS-02 HouseR 87%
- KS-03 HouseD 96%
- Kansas SenateR 68%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 KS-04 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ks-4/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.