2026 Texas · U.S. House
TX-38 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Jon Bonck a 92% chance of winning the 2026 race for TX-38 over Democrat Melissa McDonough (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 91%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 6.5% / 93.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 8.8% / 91.2%
- Gap between exchanges
- 2.3 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Bonck (R) | 93.5% | $3K |
| Melissa McDonough (D) | 6.5% | $3K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Bonck (R) | 91.2% | $18K |
| Melissa McDonough (D) | 8.8% | $10K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 TX-38 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Jon Bonck a 92% chance of winning the 2026 race for TX-38 over Democrat Melissa McDonough (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 91%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 7%, Republicans 93%. Polymarket: Democrats 9%, Republicans 91%. The two exchanges differ by 2.3 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Texas races in 2026
- Texas GovernorR 81%
- TX-01 HouseR 97%
- TX-10 HouseR 93%
- TX-11 HouseR 96%
- TX-12 HouseR 95%
- TX-13 HouseR 95%
- TX-14 HouseR 96%
- TX-15 HouseD 80%
- TX-16 HouseD 98%
- TX-17 HouseR 94%
- TX-18 HouseD 96%
- TX-19 HouseR 99%
- TX-02 HouseR 94%
- TX-20 HouseD 96%
- TX-21 HouseR 94%
- TX-22 HouseR 92%
- TX-23 HouseR 65%
- TX-24 HouseR 91%
- TX-25 HouseR 94%
- TX-26 HouseR 97%
- TX-27 HouseR 94%
- TX-28 HouseD 89%
- TX-29 HouseD 98%
- TX-03 HouseR 96%
- TX-30 HouseD 98%
- TX-31 HouseR 94%
- TX-32 HouseR 90%
- TX-33 HouseD 98%
- TX-34 HouseD 84%
- TX-35 HouseD 60%
- TX-36 HouseR 94%
- TX-37 HouseD 98%
- TX-04 HouseR 95%
- TX-05 HouseR 99%
- TX-06 HouseR 94%
- TX-07 HouseD 98%
- TX-08 HouseR 96%
- TX-09 HouseR 83%
- Texas SenateD 62%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 TX-38 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/tx-38/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.