2026 Senate
West Virginia Senate race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Shelley Moore Capito a 98% chance of winning the 2026 West Virginia Senate race over Democrat Rachel Fetty Anderson (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 99%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 2.4% / 97.6%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 1.2% / 98.8%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.2 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Shelley Moore Capito (R) | 97.6% | $9K |
| Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) | 2.4% | $13K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Shelley Moore Capito (R) | 98.8% | $11K |
| Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) | 1.2% | $5K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 West Virginia Senate race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Shelley Moore Capito a 98% chance of winning the 2026 West Virginia Senate race over Democrat Rachel Fetty Anderson (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 99%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 2%, Republicans 98%. Polymarket: Democrats 1%, Republicans 99%. The two exchanges differ by 1.2 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other West Virginia races in 2026
- WV-01 HouseR 98%
- WV-02 HouseR 97%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 West Virginia Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/west-virginia/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.