2026 New Hampshire · U.S. House
NH-01 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Stefany Shaheen a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for NH-01 over Republican Anthony DiLorenzo (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 96%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 94.7% / 5.3%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 96.4% / 3.6%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.7 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefany Shaheen | 93¢ | 91¢ | 96¢ | 96¢ | ▲5¢ |
| Anthony DiLorenzo | 5¢ | 3¢ | 8¢ | 5¢ | 0¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefany Shaheen | 94¢ | 94¢ | 95¢ | 95¢ | ▲1¢ |
| Anthony DiLorenzo | 4¢ | 3¢ | 4¢ | 4¢ | — |
Price history
Democratic odds rose 8.1 points over the past 3 months, from 87% to 96%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Stefany Shaheen (D) | 94.7% | $7K |
| Anthony DiLorenzo (R) | 5.3% | $9K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Stefany Shaheen (D) | 96.4% | $15K |
| Anthony DiLorenzo (R) | 3.6% | $15K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 NH-01 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Stefany Shaheen a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for NH-01 over Republican Anthony DiLorenzo (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 96%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 95%, Republicans 5%. Polymarket: Democrats 96%, Republicans 4%. The two exchanges differ by 1.7 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 2.1 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other New Hampshire races in 2026
- New Hampshire GovernorR 95%
- NH-02 HouseD 94%
- New Hampshire SenateD 87%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 NH-01 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/nh-1/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.