2026 Governor

New Hampshire governor race odds

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Kelly Ayotte a 95% chance of winning the 2026 New Hampshire governor race over Democrat Cinde Warmington (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 96%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

Cinde Warmington (D)5%
Kelly Ayotte (R) 95%
Market rating
Safe R
Kalshi (D / R)
6.8% / 93.2%
Polymarket (D / R)
4.0% / 96.0%
Gap between exchanges
2.8 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds fell 16.4 points over the past 3 months, from 22% to 5%.

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 5Aug 19Oct 3
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Jul 5 – Oct 3

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Kelly Ayotte (R)93.2%$31K
Cinde Warmington (D)6.8%$169K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Kelly Ayotte (R)96.0%$19K
Cinde Warmington (D)4.0%$22K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 New Hampshire governor race?

As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Kelly Ayotte a 95% chance of winning the 2026 New Hampshire governor race over Democrat Cinde Warmington (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 96%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 7%, Republicans 93%. Polymarket: Democrats 4%, Republicans 96%. The two exchanges differ by 2.8 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds have fallen 1.0 points since Sep 26, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 New Hampshire governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/new-hampshire/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.