2026 Florida · U.S. House
FL-04 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Aaron Bean a 86% chance of winning the 2026 race for FL-04 over Democrat LaShonda Holloway (Kalshi 85%, Polymarket 86%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 15.0% / 85.0%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 13.9% / 86.1%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.1 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Bean (R) | 85.0% | $3K |
| LaShonda Holloway (D) | 15.0% | $7K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Bean (R) | 86.1% | $17K |
| LaShonda Holloway (D) | 13.9% | $11K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 FL-04 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Aaron Bean a 86% chance of winning the 2026 race for FL-04 over Democrat LaShonda Holloway (Kalshi 85%, Polymarket 86%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 15%, Republicans 85%. Polymarket: Democrats 14%, Republicans 86%. The two exchanges differ by 1.1 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Florida races in 2026
- Florida GovernorR 77%
- FL-01 HouseR 97%
- FL-10 HouseD 97%
- FL-11 HouseR 89%
- FL-12 HouseR 87%
- FL-13 HouseR 75%
- FL-14 HouseD 64%
- FL-15 HouseR 92%
- FL-16 HouseR 84%
- FL-17 HouseR 95%
- FL-18 HouseR 92%
- FL-19 HouseR 95%
- FL-02 HouseR 91%
- FL-20 HouseD 97%
- FL-21 HouseR 90%
- FL-22 HouseD 52%
- FL-23 HouseD 98%
- FL-24 HouseD 98%
- FL-25 HouseD 74%
- FL-26 HouseR 86%
- FL-27 HouseR 62%
- FL-28 HouseR 94%
- FL-03 HouseR 94%
- FL-05 HouseR 92%
- FL-06 HouseR 94%
- FL-07 HouseR 67%
- FL-08 HouseR 94%
- FL-09 HouseR 71%
- Florida SenateR 91%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 FL-04 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/fl-4/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.