2026 Governor
Hawaii governor race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Josh Green a 98% chance of winning the 2026 Hawaii governor race over Republican Gary Cordery (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 99%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 97.1% / 2.9%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 98.8% / 1.2%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.7 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Green (D) | 97.1% | $7K |
| Gary Cordery (R) | 2.9% | $3K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Green (D) | 98.8% | $7K |
| Gary Cordery (R) | 1.2% | $9K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Hawaii governor race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Josh Green a 98% chance of winning the 2026 Hawaii governor race over Republican Gary Cordery (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 99%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 97%, Republicans 3%. Polymarket: Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%. The two exchanges differ by 1.7 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Hawaii races in 2026
- HI-01 HouseD 97%
- HI-02 HouseD 96%
Closest governor races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Hawaii governor race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/governor/hawaii/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.