2026 Arkansas · U.S. House
AR-04 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Bruce Westerman a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for AR-04 over Democrat James Russell (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 97%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 4.6% / 95.4%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 3.1% / 96.9%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.5 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds fell 1.5 points over the past 3 months, from 5% to 4%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Bruce Westerman (R) | 95.4% | $3K |
| James Russell (D) | 4.6% | $2K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Bruce Westerman (R) | 96.9% | $13K |
| James Russell (D) | 3.1% | $11K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 AR-04 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Bruce Westerman a 96% chance of winning the 2026 race for AR-04 over Democrat James Russell (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 97%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 5%, Republicans 95%. Polymarket: Democrats 3%, Republicans 97%. The two exchanges differ by 1.5 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 0.8 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Arkansas races in 2026
- Arkansas GovernorR 97%
- AR-01 HouseR 97%
- AR-02 HouseR 82%
- AR-03 HouseR 97%
- Arkansas SenateR 94%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 AR-04 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ar-4/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.