2026 Senate
Arkansas Senate race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Tom Cotton a 94% chance of winning the 2026 Arkansas Senate race over Democrat Hallie Shoffner (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 94%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 6.5% / 93.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 6.3% / 93.7%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.2 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Cotton | 94¢ | 93¢ | 94¢ | 93¢ | ▲1¢ |
| Hallie Shoffner | 7¢ | 6¢ | 7¢ | 6¢ | ▼1¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Cotton | 94¢ | 94¢ | 94¢ | 94¢ | ▼1¢ |
| Hallie Shoffner | 6¢ | 6¢ | 6¢ | 6¢ | ▲1¢ |
Price history
Democratic odds rose 3.5 points over the past 3 months, from 3% to 6%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Tom Cotton (R) | 93.5% | $39K |
| Hallie Shoffner (D) | 6.5% | $138K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Tom Cotton (R) | 93.7% | $20K |
| Hallie Shoffner (D) | 6.3% | $9K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Arkansas Senate race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Tom Cotton a 94% chance of winning the 2026 Arkansas Senate race over Democrat Hallie Shoffner (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 94%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 6%, Republicans 94%. Polymarket: Democrats 6%, Republicans 94%. The two exchanges differ by 0.2 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Arkansas races in 2026
- Arkansas GovernorR 97%
- AR-01 HouseR 98%
- AR-02 HouseR 82%
- AR-03 HouseR 97%
- AR-04 HouseR 96%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Arkansas Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/arkansas/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.