2026 Washington · U.S. House
WA-03 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez a 90% chance of winning the 2026 race for WA-03 over Republican John Braun (Kalshi 89%, Polymarket 91%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 89.4% / 10.6%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 91.4% / 8.6%
- Gap between exchanges
- 2.0 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) | 89.4% | $44K |
| John Braun (R) | 10.6% | $101K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) | 91.4% | $26K |
| John Braun (R) | 8.6% | $14K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 WA-03 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez a 90% chance of winning the 2026 race for WA-03 over Republican John Braun (Kalshi 89%, Polymarket 91%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 89%, Republicans 11%. Polymarket: Democrats 91%, Republicans 9%. The two exchanges differ by 2.0 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Washington races in 2026
- WA-01 HouseD 99%
- WA-10 HouseD 97%
- WA-02 HouseD 96%
- WA-04 HouseR 93%
- WA-05 HouseR 82%
- WA-06 HouseD 99%
- WA-07 HouseD 98%
- WA-08 HouseD 98%
- WA-09 HouseD 97%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 WA-03 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/wa-3/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.