2026 Washington · U.S. House
WA-04 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Amanda McKinney a 93% chance of winning the 2026 race for WA-04 over Democrat John Duresky (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 93%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 7.5% / 92.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 6.6% / 93.4%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.9 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Amanda McKinney (R) | 92.5% | $23K |
| John Duresky (D) | 7.5% | $9K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Amanda McKinney (R) | 93.4% | $31K |
| John Duresky (D) | 6.6% | $27K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 WA-04 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Amanda McKinney a 93% chance of winning the 2026 race for WA-04 over Democrat John Duresky (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 93%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 7%, Republicans 93%. Polymarket: Democrats 7%, Republicans 93%. The two exchanges differ by 0.9 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Washington races in 2026
- WA-01 HouseD 99%
- WA-10 HouseD 97%
- WA-02 HouseD 96%
- WA-03 HouseD 90%
- WA-05 HouseR 82%
- WA-06 HouseD 99%
- WA-07 HouseD 98%
- WA-08 HouseD 98%
- WA-09 HouseD 97%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
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Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 WA-04 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/wa-4/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.