2026 Washington · U.S. House
WA-05 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Michael Baumgartner a 82% chance of winning the 2026 race for WA-05 over Democrat Carmela Conroy (Kalshi 83%, Polymarket 82%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Likely R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 17.0% / 83.0%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 18.1% / 81.9%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.1 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Baumgartner | 83¢ | 82¢ | 84¢ | 84¢ | 0¢ |
| Carmela Conroy | 17¢ | 16¢ | 18¢ | 18¢ | ▲1¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Baumgartner | 81¢ | 80¢ | 81¢ | 81¢ | — |
| Carmela Conroy | 18¢ | 18¢ | 18¢ | 18¢ | — |
Price history
Democratic odds fell 5.6 points over the past 3 months, from 23% to 18%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Baumgartner (R) | 83.0% | $22K |
| Carmela Conroy (D) | 17.0% | $30K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Baumgartner (R) | 81.9% | $23K |
| Carmela Conroy (D) | 18.1% | $35K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 WA-05 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Michael Baumgartner a 82% chance of winning the 2026 race for WA-05 over Democrat Carmela Conroy (Kalshi 83%, Polymarket 82%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 17%, Republicans 83%. Polymarket: Democrats 18%, Republicans 82%. The two exchanges differ by 1.1 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Washington races in 2026
- WA-01 HouseD 99%
- WA-10 HouseD 97%
- WA-02 HouseD 96%
- WA-03 HouseD 90%
- WA-04 HouseR 93%
- WA-06 HouseD 99%
- WA-07 HouseD 98%
- WA-08 HouseD 98%
- WA-09 HouseD 97%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 WA-05 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/wa-5/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.