2026 New Mexico · U.S. House
NM-03 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Teresa Leger Fernández a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for NM-03 over Republican Martin Zamora (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 98%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 95.5% / 4.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 98.4% / 1.6%
- Gap between exchanges
- 3.0 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Teresa Leger Fernández (D) | 95.5% | $894 |
| Martin Zamora (R) | 4.5% | $5K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Teresa Leger Fernández (D) | 98.4% | $24K |
| Martin Zamora (R) | 1.6% | $30K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 NM-03 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat Teresa Leger Fernández a 97% chance of winning the 2026 race for NM-03 over Republican Martin Zamora (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 98%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 95%, Republicans 5%. Polymarket: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. The two exchanges differ by 3.0 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other New Mexico races in 2026
- New Mexico GovernorD 95%
- NM-01 HouseD 97%
- NM-02 HouseD 95%
- New Mexico SenateD 98%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 NM-03 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/nm-3/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.