2026 Indiana · U.S. House

IN-05 House race odds

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Victoria Spartz a 85% chance of winning the 2026 race for IN-05 over Democrat J. D. Ford (Kalshi 85%, Polymarket 85%).

Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes

J. D. Ford (D)15%
Victoria Spartz (R) 85%
Market rating
Likely R
Kalshi (D / R)
14.7% / 85.3%
Polymarket (D / R)
14.6% / 85.4%
Gap between exchanges
0.1 pts
Election Day
Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)

Price history

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 2Oct 2
KalshiPolymarketDemocratic odds, Oct 2 – Oct 2

Every candidate, by exchange

Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.

Kalshi open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Victoria Spartz (R)85.3%$7K
J.D. Ford (D)14.7%$12K

Polymarket open market ↗

OutcomeChanceVolume
Victoria Spartz (R)85.4%$14K
J. D. Ford (D)14.6%$15K

Questions about this race

Who is favored to win the 2026 IN-05 House race?

As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Victoria Spartz a 85% chance of winning the 2026 race for IN-05 over Democrat J. D. Ford (Kalshi 85%, Polymarket 85%).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?

Kalshi: Democrats 15%, Republicans 85%. Polymarket: Democrats 15%, Republicans 85%. The two exchanges differ by 0.1 points.

How have the odds moved this week?

Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.

When is the 2026 election?

Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.

Other Indiana races in 2026

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Data

Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology

Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 IN-05 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/in-5/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.