2026 Indiana · U.S. House
IN-07 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat André Carson a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for IN-07 over Republican Patrick McAuley (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 100%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe D
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 97.9% / 2.1%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 99.6% / 0.4%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.6 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Carson | 98¢ | 97¢ | 98¢ | 98¢ | 0¢ |
| Patrick McAuley | 2¢ | 0¢ | 4¢ | 4¢ | 0¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Carson | 97¢ | 95¢ | 99¢ | 96¢ | 0¢ |
| Patrick McAuley | 0¢ | 0¢ | 1¢ | 0¢ | — |
Price history
Democratic odds rose 4.2 points over the past 3 months, from 95% to 99%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| André Carson (D) | 97.9% | $20K |
| Patrick McAuley (R) | 2.1% | $1K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| André Carson (D) | 99.6% | $8K |
| Patrick McAuley (R) | 0.4% | $38K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 IN-07 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Democrat André Carson a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for IN-07 over Republican Patrick McAuley (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 100%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%. Polymarket: Democrats 100%, Republicans 0%. The two exchanges differ by 1.6 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Indiana races in 2026
- IN-01 HouseD 99%
- IN-02 HouseR 97%
- IN-03 HouseR 95%
- IN-04 HouseR 94%
- IN-05 HouseR 85%
- IN-06 HouseR 95%
- IN-08 HouseR 96%
- IN-09 HouseR 94%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 IN-07 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/in-7/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.