2026 South Carolina · U.S. House
SC-04 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican William Timmons a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for SC-04 over Democrat Courtney McClain (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 98%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 2.5% / 97.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 2.0% / 98.0%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.6 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| William Timmons (R) | 97.5% | $5K |
| Courtney McClain (D) | 2.5% | $2K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| William Timmons (R) | 98.0% | $23K |
| Courtney McClain (D) | 2.0% | $25K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 SC-04 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican William Timmons a 98% chance of winning the 2026 race for SC-04 over Democrat Courtney McClain (Kalshi 97%, Polymarket 98%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 3%, Republicans 97%. Polymarket: Democrats 2%, Republicans 98%. The two exchanges differ by 0.6 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other South Carolina races in 2026
- South Carolina GovernorR 95%
- SC-01 HouseR 74%
- SC-02 HouseR 90%
- SC-03 HouseR 97%
- SC-05 HouseR 92%
- SC-06 HouseD 97%
- SC-07 HouseR 95%
- South Carolina SenateR 87%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 SC-04 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/sc-4/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.