2026 Montana · U.S. House
MT-02 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Troy Downing a 95% chance of winning the 2026 race for MT-02 over Democrat Brian Miller (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 96%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 5.4% / 94.6%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 4.5% / 95.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.9 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Troy Downing (R) | 94.6% | $3K |
| Brian Miller (D) | 5.4% | $3K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Troy Downing (R) | 95.5% | $26K |
| Brian Miller (D) | 4.5% | $28K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 MT-02 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Troy Downing a 95% chance of winning the 2026 race for MT-02 over Democrat Brian Miller (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 96%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 5%, Republicans 95%. Polymarket: Democrats 4%, Republicans 96%. The two exchanges differ by 0.9 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Montana races in 2026
- MT-01 HouseR 67%
- Montana SenateR 91%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 MT-02 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/mt-2/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.