2026 Senate
Montana Senate race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Kurt Alme a 91% chance of winning the 2026 Montana Senate race over Democrat Alani Bankhead (Kalshi 92%, Polymarket 91%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 0.7% / 91.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 0.4% / 91.3%
- Gap between exchanges
- 0.3 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Share prices
Each contract pays $1 if that outcome happens. The price is what traders are paying now, so 60¢ means roughly a 60% chance. Bid is the best offer to buy, ask the best offer to sell.
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Alme | 92¢ | 92¢ | 93¢ | 93¢ | 0¢ |
| Seth Bodnar | 8¢ | 8¢ | 8¢ | 8¢ | 0¢ |
| Alani Bankhead | 1¢ | 1¢ | 1¢ | 1¢ | 0¢ |
| Contract | Price | Bid | Ask | Last | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Alme | 92¢ | 91¢ | 92¢ | 92¢ | — |
| Independent | 8¢ | 8¢ | 8¢ | 8¢ | 0¢ |
| Alani Bankhead | 0¢ | 0¢ | 1¢ | 0¢ | 0¢ |
Price history
Democratic odds fell 1.2 points over the past 3 months, from 2% to 1%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Kurt Alme (R) | 91.5% | $232K |
| Seth Bodnar (I) | 7.8% | $234K |
| Alani Bankhead (D) | 0.7% | $169K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Kurt Alme (R) | 91.3% | $75K |
| Independent candidate | 8.3% | $24K |
| Alani Bankhead (D) | 0.4% | $46K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 Montana Senate race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Kurt Alme a 91% chance of winning the 2026 Montana Senate race over Democrat Alani Bankhead (Kalshi 92%, Polymarket 91%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 1%, Republicans 92%. Polymarket: Democrats 0%, Republicans 91%. The two exchanges differ by 0.3 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have fallen 0.6 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Montana races in 2026
- MT-01 HouseR 67%
- MT-02 HouseR 95%
Closest Senate races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 Montana Senate race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/senate/montana/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.