2026 Montana · U.S. House
MT-01 House race odds
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Aaron Flint a 67% chance of winning the 2026 race for MT-01 over Democrat Sam Forstag (Kalshi 67%, Polymarket 68%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Lean R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 33.5% / 66.5%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 32.5% / 67.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.0 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds rose 2.8 points over the past 3 months, from 30% to 33%.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Flint (R) | 66.5% | $149K |
| Sam Forstag (D) | 33.5% | $148K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Flint (R) | 67.5% | $8K |
| Sam Forstag (D) | 32.5% | $19K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 MT-01 House race?
As of Oct 3, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Aaron Flint a 67% chance of winning the 2026 race for MT-01 over Democrat Sam Forstag (Kalshi 67%, Polymarket 68%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 34%, Republicans 67%. Polymarket: Democrats 33%, Republicans 68%. The two exchanges differ by 1.0 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds have risen 2.1 points since Sep 26, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Montana races in 2026
- MT-02 HouseR 95%
- Montana SenateR 91%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 MT-01 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/mt-1/, accessed Oct 3, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.