2026 Mississippi · U.S. House
MS-03 House race odds
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Michael Guest a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for MS-03 over Democrat Michael Chiaradio (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 100%).
Updated · prices refresh every 10 minutes
- Market rating
- Safe R
- Kalshi (D / R)
- 2.2% / 97.8%
- Polymarket (D / R)
- 0.5% / 99.5%
- Gap between exchanges
- 1.8 pts
- Election Day
- Nov 3, 2026 (32 days)
Price history
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
Every candidate, by exchange
Each exchange's prices rescaled to add up to 100%. Kalshi prices are the bid–ask midpoint; Polymarket prices are its displayed price.
Kalshi open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Guest (R) | 97.8% | $1K |
| Michael Chiaradio (D) | 2.2% | $1K |
Polymarket open market ↗
| Outcome | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Guest (R) | 99.5% | $23K |
| Michael Chiaradio (D) | 0.5% | $39K |
Questions about this race
Who is favored to win the 2026 MS-03 House race?
As of Oct 2, 2026, prediction markets give Republican Michael Guest a 99% chance of winning the 2026 race for MS-03 over Democrat Michael Chiaradio (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 100%).
What do Kalshi and Polymarket say?
Kalshi: Democrats 2%, Republicans 98%. Polymarket: Democrats 0%, Republicans 100%. The two exchanges differ by 1.8 points.
How have the odds moved this week?
Democratic odds are essentially unchanged since Oct 2, 2026.
When is the 2026 election?
Election Day is Nov 3, 2026, 32 days from now.
Other Mississippi races in 2026
- MS-01 HouseR 96%
- MS-02 HouseD 97%
- MS-04 HouseR 97%
- Mississippi SenateR 90%
Closest House races in 2026
Data
Price history (JSON)All 2026 races (JSON)All 2026 races (CSV)2026 dashboardMethodology
Cite as: Parlay the People, “2026 MS-03 House race,” https://parlaythepeople.com/2026/house/ms-3/, accessed Oct 2, 2026. Prediction-market prices are crowd forecasts, not certainties, and nothing here is betting or investment advice.