Daily market report · so far today
Election markets on Sunday, October 4, 2026
Democrats ended the day 64% to win the Senate and 93% to win the House; the biggest move was MT-01 (Montana), where Democratic odds went from 33% to 37%; $91K traded on 2026 races.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days · updates through the day
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MT-01 (Montana) | D 33% | D 37% | ▲ 3.3 |
| CO-05 (Colorado) | D 26% | D 23% | ▼ 2.5 |
| VA-01 (Virginia) | D 47% | D 49% | ▲ 2.2 |
| Tennessee Senate | D 3% | D 5% | ▲ 1.6 |
| FL-27 (Florida) | D 39% | D 37% | ▼ 1.5 |
| AZ-02 (Arizona) | D 32% | D 30% | ▼ 1.2 |
| NJ-12 (New Jersey) | D 96% | D 97% | ▲ 1.1 |
| KY-06 (Kentucky) | D 26% | D 27% | ▲ 1.1 |
Where the money went
$91K traded on 2026 races across 1,398 trades.
- House control$12K
- Texas Senate$11K
- Senate control$9K
- Michigan Senate$6K
- VA-01 (Virginia)$6K
- CO-05 (Colorado)$6K
- Maine Senate$5K
- Texas Governor$5K
Biggest single trades
- VA-01 (Virginia): No Rob Wittman at 52¢, 8:11 PM ET$6K
- CO-05 (Colorado): Yes Jeff Crank at 75¢, 9:38 PM ET$5K
- Michigan Senate: Yes Abdul El-Sayed at 72¢, 8:54 PM ET$5K
- Maine Senate: Yes Susan Collins at 41¢, 8:35 PM ET$5K
- House control: Yes Democratic Party at 92¢, 8:04 PM ET$4K
- Texas Governor: Yes Greg Abbott at 76¢, 10:08 PM ET$4K
Headlines
- Trump touts ‘golden age’ at Ohio rally, urges voters to deliver GOP midterm wins Fox News
- Jon Gruden makes major move for Donald Trump ahead of midterm elections thecomeback.com
- Texas Dem James Talarico takes LGBTQ group’s cash — after vowing to ban trans surgeries for kids New York Post
- EXCLUSIVE: Major Political Party Leader In The Balkans Calls For Trump, Putin To Help Him Create New Christian Nation In Europe Daily Caller
- Blakeman vows to ban transgender students in girls’ school bathrooms and lockers in NY New York Post
