Daily market report · so far today
Election markets on Saturday, October 3, 2026
Democrats ended the day 64% to win the Senate (Democratic odds up 0.8 points) and 93% to win the House (Democratic odds up 0.5 points); the biggest move was Texas Governor, where Democratic odds went from 19% to 24%; $849K traded on 2026 races.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days · updates through the day
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Governor | D 19% | D 24% | ▲ 5.2 |
| Nevada Governor | D 48% | D 52% | ▲ 4.6 |
| TX-06 (Texas) | D 6% | D 2% | ▼ 4.1 |
| Texas Senate | D 62% | D 65% | ▲ 2.7 |
| TN-07 (Tennessee) | D 5% | D 3% | ▼ 2.3 |
| SC-01 (South Carolina) | D 26% | D 28% | ▲ 2.3 |
| Michigan Governor | D 92% | D 94% | ▲ 2.2 |
| Georgia Governor | D 48% | D 46% | ▼ 2.2 |
| NC-11 (North Carolina) | D 65% | D 67% | ▲ 2.1 |
| PA-12 (Pennsylvania) | D 96% | D 98% | ▲ 2.0 |
Where the money went
$849K traded on 2026 races across 4,554 trades.
- Texas Senate$283K
- House control$209K
- Kansas Senate$84K
- Senate control$84K
- Alaska Senate$29K
- Texas Governor$28K
- Michigan Governor$17K
- Nevada Governor$12K
Biggest single trades
- Texas Senate: No Ken Paxton at 37¢, 5:43 AM ET$131K
- House control: Buy Democrats at 93¢, 8:59 PM ET$66K
- House control: Buy Democrats at 94¢, 8:59 PM ET$47K
- Senate control: No Republican Party at 37¢, 5:45 AM ET$32K
- Texas Senate: Buy Ken Paxton at 38¢, 5:51 AM ET$31K
- House control: Buy Democrats at 94¢, 9:02 PM ET$30K
Headlines
- To save millions of lives, the Trump administration is eviscerating climate change hysteria Washington Examiner
- History Says the Midterm Elections Make October & November a Great Time to Buy Stocks The Motley Fool
- Trump Regrets Appointing Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett RealClearPolitics
- Many House Republicans Believe They Won’t Win House Political Wire
- Florida voters already casting their midterm election ballots. Guide to voting-by-mail. Sun Sentinel
- Lawmaker’s stunned face and other viral moments cap rough week for political class Fox News
- Top investigator in Biden-era election probe wanted to tear key constitutional right away from lawmakers Fox News
- The polls are lying: Why the Republicans are about to sweep the midterm elections Washington Examiner
- They drug 5-year-olds to smuggle them for $900 a head. Why is Congress looking away? Washington Examiner
- Trump’s admission of a ‘public relations’ problem tests claim he’s his own best messenger Washington Examiner
- Trump scored three economic ‘own goals.’ Here’s his radical three-step fix Washington Examiner
- Ohio Midterm Elections The Daily News | Texas' Oldest Newspaper
