Daily market report
Election markets on Friday, October 2, 2026
Democrats ended the day 64% to win the Senate (Democratic odds up 0.7 points) and 92% to win the House; the biggest move was Vermont Governor, where Democratic odds went from 16% to 22%; $2.3M traded on 2026 races.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vermont Governor | D 16% | D 22% | ▲ 5.9 |
| Kansas Senate | D 29% | D 33% | ▲ 3.5 |
| Oregon Governor | D 76% | D 73% | ▼ 2.9 |
| AZ-07 (Arizona) | D 96% | D 98% | ▲ 2.2 |
| CA-39 (California) | D 95% | D 97% | ▲ 2.0 |
| CO-05 (Colorado) | D 30% | D 28% | ▼ 1.9 |
| Iowa Senate | D 42% | D 44% | ▲ 1.9 |
| CA-21 (California) | D 94% | D 96% | ▲ 1.8 |
| NM-01 (New Mexico) | D 94% | D 96% | ▲ 1.8 |
| NY-20 (New York) | D 95% | D 97% | ▲ 1.8 |
Where the money went
$2.3M traded on 2026 races across 14,454 trades.
- House control$403K
- Texas Senate$392K
- Senate control$200K
- Ohio Senate$196K
- Iowa Senate$176K
- Maine Senate$129K
- Kansas Senate$129K
- North Carolina Senate$76K
Biggest single trades
- House control: Yes Democratic Party at 92¢, 8:40 AM ET$82K
- Senate control: Yes Republican Party at 38¢, 3:21 PM ET$37K
- New Hampshire Governor: No Cinde Warmington at 6¢, 1:37 PM ET$23K
- New Hampshire Governor: No Cinde Warmington at 6¢, 1:37 PM ET$23K
- 2028-pres-nomD: No Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 13¢, 3:23 AM ET$22K
- Ohio Senate: Yes Sherrod Brown at 60¢, 12:14 PM ET$21K
Headlines
- Anthony Fauci again faces questions from Senate Republicans about pandemic origins localmemphis.com
- WATCH LIVE: Trump rallies for GOP candidates in Alabama Washington Examiner
- Top Senate Democrats Challenge Legality Of Pentagon’s Planned Venezuela Oil Stake Daily Caller
- Texas GOP: 'Houston, We Have a Problem' RealClearPolitics
- Republicans Pull The Plug On 2 Swing States As GOP’s Midterm Prospects Become Increasingly Grim Daily Caller
- National Manufacturing Day, 2026 The White House
- Dems demanding Venezuela brief face State Department fury as senators leave town before meeting Fox News
- Presidential Message on National Cybersecurity Awareness Month The White House
- Presidential Message on National Domestic Violence Awareness Month The White House
- Poll: 6 In 10 Americans Oppose Democrats’ Plan To Pack The Supreme Court The Federalist
- Obama judge halts Trump firing bid as decades-old legal authority tees up possible major reversal Fox News
- Why the Supreme Court Should Shut Down Boulder’s Climate Case National Review
