Daily market report
Election markets on Thursday, October 1, 2026
Democrats ended the day 63% to win the Senate and 92% to win the House (Democratic odds up 0.5 points); the biggest move was VA-01 (Virginia), where Democratic odds went from 40% to 47%; $1.9M traded on 2026 races.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| VA-01 (Virginia) | D 40% | D 47% | ▲ 7.1 |
| TX-35 (Texas) | D 65% | D 59% | ▼ 5.7 |
| TX-15 (Texas) | D 75% | D 80% | ▲ 5.1 |
| CO-03 (Colorado) | D 31% | D 26% | ▼ 4.6 |
| NY-03 (New York) | D 92% | D 87% | ▼ 4.4 |
| Oregon Governor | D 80% | D 76% | ▼ 4.1 |
| Texas Governor | D 22% | D 19% | ▼ 3.2 |
| CA-45 (California) | D 92% | D 95% | ▲ 3.0 |
| UT-02 (Utah) | D 2% | D 5% | ▲ 2.8 |
| GA-03 (Georgia) | D 7% | D 4% | ▼ 2.2 |
Where the money went
$1.9M traded on 2026 races across 11,698 trades.
- House control$390K
- Texas Senate$320K
- Senate control$280K
- Ohio Senate$186K
- Kansas Senate$87K
- New Hampshire Senate$86K
- South Carolina Senate$62K
- Michigan Senate$38K
Biggest single trades
- House control: Yes Democratic Party at 92¢, 7:40 AM ET$112K
- House control: No Republican Party at 9¢, 7:40 AM ET$63K
- New Hampshire Senate: No John E. Sununu at 14¢, 9:58 AM ET$60K
- Senate control: Yes Democratic Party at 63¢, 4:56 PM ET$49K
- Senate control: Buy Republicans at 37¢, 3:42 PM ET$47K
- House control: Yes Democratic Party at 92¢, 7:40 AM ET$45K
