Daily market report
Election markets on Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Democrats ended the day 63% to win the Senate (Democratic odds up 0.5 points) and 91% to win the House; the biggest move was CO-03 (Colorado), where Democratic odds went from 37% to 31%; $1.2M traded on 2026 races.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CO-03 (Colorado) | D 37% | D 31% | ▼ 6.4 |
| Wisconsin Governor | D 84% | D 81% | ▼ 3.9 |
| TX-23 (Texas) | D 38% | D 35% | ▼ 3.3 |
| NH-01 (New Hampshire) | D 94% | D 97% | ▲ 2.8 |
| Texas Senate | D 60% | D 63% | ▲ 2.8 |
| LA-04 (Louisiana) | D 3% | D 6% | ▲ 2.5 |
| Oregon Governor | D 82% | D 80% | ▼ 2.4 |
| NJ-06 (New Jersey) | D 94% | D 96% | ▲ 2.4 |
| MO-02 (Missouri) | D 28% | D 26% | ▼ 2.3 |
| FL-23 (Florida) | D 95% | D 97% | ▲ 2.2 |
Where the money went
$1.2M traded on 2026 races across 6,674 trades.
- House control$222K
- Texas Senate$213K
- Ohio Senate$159K
- Senate control$154K
- Alaska Senate$58K
- Maine Senate$54K
- North Carolina Senate$37K
- Wisconsin Governor$35K
Biggest single trades
- House control: No Republican Party at 9¢, 10:14 AM ET$37K
- House control: No Republican Party at 9¢, 8:18 AM ET$37K
- 2028-pres-nomD: No Hunter Biden at 0¢, 5:37 PM ET$33K
- Ohio Senate: No Jon Husted at 39¢, 4:55 PM ET$30K
- Senate control: Yes Democratic Party at 62¢, 2:29 PM ET$29K
- Senate control: Yes Democratic Party at 62¢, 11:24 AM ET$28K
