Daily market report
Election markets on Tuesday, September 29, 2026
Democrats ended the day 62% to win the Senate and 91% to win the House (Democratic odds down 0.6 points); the biggest move was Ohio Senate, where Democratic odds went from 58% to 61%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Senate | D 58% | D 61% | ▲ 3.7 |
| Texas Governor | D 18% | D 21% | ▲ 2.9 |
| MN-02 (Minnesota) | D 93% | D 95% | ▲ 2.5 |
| UT-02 (Utah) | D 5% | D 3% | ▼ 2.2 |
| VA-01 (Virginia) | D 36% | D 38% | ▲ 2.1 |
| Michigan Senate | D 71% | D 73% | ▲ 2.0 |
| NJ-05 (New Jersey) | D 94% | D 96% | ▲ 1.8 |
| MO-07 (Missouri) | D 3% | D 5% | ▲ 1.6 |
| KY-06 (Kentucky) | D 25% | D 26% | ▲ 1.5 |
| NY-17 (New York) | D 64% | D 62% | ▼ 1.5 |
