Daily market report
Election markets on Monday, September 28, 2026
Democrats ended the day 62% to win the Senate and 92% to win the House; the biggest move was FL-27 (Florida), where Democratic odds went from 40% to 37%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FL-27 (Florida) | D 40% | D 37% | ▼ 3.1 |
| TX-35 (Texas) | D 67% | D 65% | ▼ 2.6 |
| IL-04 (Illinois) | D 94% | D 96% | ▲ 2.4 |
| Vermont Governor | D 17% | D 15% | ▼ 2.1 |
| FL-14 (Florida) | D 67% | D 65% | ▼ 2.0 |
| NJ-07 (New Jersey) | D 87% | D 89% | ▲ 2.0 |
| MT-01 (Montana) | D 30% | D 32% | ▲ 1.9 |
| Ohio Governor | D 62% | D 60% | ▼ 1.9 |
| IL-01 (Illinois) | D 94% | D 96% | ▲ 1.8 |
| CA-01 (California) | D 94% | D 96% | ▲ 1.7 |
