What are Alex Mealer's chances of winning the 2026 TX-09 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Alex Mealer a 82% chance (Kalshi 82%, Polymarket 83%).

How much money has Alex Mealer raised?

Alex Mealer's campaign has raised $2.1M and has $362K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · TX

Alex Mealer

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Alex Mealer (Republican) a 82% chance of winning the 2026 TX-09 House race (Kalshi 82%, Polymarket 83%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 TX-09 House race	82%	82%	83%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $2.1M
Spent: $1.7M
Cash on hand: $362K
Outside groups for: $5.0M
Outside groups against: $362K

Through June 30, 2026. $1.7M from individuals, $259K from PACs, $5K of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Alexandra Mealer →

Polls

In the 2026 TX-09 House race, the Parlay polling average has Alex Mealer at 45% against Leticia Gutierrez at 39%, from 1 polls (newest ended 2026-09-19).

Running against

Leticia Gutierrez18%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.