Election calendar

• Brazil Presidential Election Flávio Bolsonaro 82%
• Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Tarcisio de Freitas <1%
• Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place Augusto Cury >99%
• Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory Flávio Bolsonaro <5% >99%
• Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner Douglas Ruas 91%

and 157 more

• When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Before Jan 1, 2029 72%
• Quebec General Election Winner PQ 97%
• Next Premier of Quebec Paul St-Pierre Plamondon 98%
• Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) Above 10 99%
• Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) Above 4 95%

and 14 more

• Who will attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? Alex Karp 1%
• Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share? 40-45% 46%
• Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share? 30-35% 23%
• Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory Labour 15%+ 36%
• Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner Alvin Lafu Sika 46%

and 2 more

• Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 9, 2026? James Talarico 85%
• Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 200+ 33%
• Trump's approval rating on Oct 9, 2026? 37.9 to 38.1 26%
• Democratic Senate odds on October 9? >66% 28%
• Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (10/2-10/9) 32%

and 1 more

• Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee Raphael Glucksmann 89%
• Next Mayor of Prague Tomáš Portlík 59%
• Next Mayor of Brno Kamila Zlatušková 44%
• French Socialist Primary: First Round Winner Raphaël Glucksmann 96%
• Next Mayor of Ostrava Richard Vereš 66%

and 8 more

• Lecornu out as French PM by...? December 31, 2026 32%
• Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/4-10/10) 160-179 22%
• How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (10/4-10/10) At least 1 4%
• Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (October 5 - October 10) October 10 53%
• What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11) NFL 85%

and 3 more

• France United Left Primary Winner Canceled 92%
• How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (10/5-10/11) 5 87%
• How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5? 25-29 31%
• How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5? 190-209 37%

• Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) Above 10 97%
• Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) Above 4 90%
• Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/5 - 10/11) Above 150 93%
• Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/5 - 10/11) Above 175 88%
• Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 200+ 28%

and 3 more

• Harvard federal sponsored revenue in FY2026? Above 600 million 98%
• When will Serbia call its presidential election? Before Nov 1, 2026 40%

• Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...? 3%
• Jon Ossoff for Senate Total Receipts (Q3) Above $20M >99%
• Talarico for Texas Total Receipts (Q3) Above $25M 98%
• CLF Cash on Hand (End of Q3) Above $95M 91%
• SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3) Above $75M 85%

and 2 more

• Coquitlam, BC Mayoral Election Winner Craig Hodge 80%

• Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner Pete Fry 70%
• Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner Zac de Vries 53%
• Surrey Mayoral Election Brenda Locke 61%
• Richmond Mayoral Election Rob Howard 55%
• Kamloops, BC Mayoral Election Winner Mike O'Reilly 66%

and 14 more

• Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? 5%
• Will HHS's youth gender-care policy take effect Oct. 13? 81%

• NRSC Cash on Hand (End of Q3) Above $15M 86%
• DNC Cash on Hand (End of Q3) Above $8M 92%
• DSCC Cash on Hand (End of Q3) Above $20M 79%
• HMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3) Above $80M 80%
• DCCC Cash on Hand (End of Q3) Above $30M 88%

and 3 more

• Next Premier of British Columbia David Eby 49%
• British Columbia General Election Winner Conservative 55%
• British Columbia General Election: 2nd Place NDP 53%
• British Columbia General Election: 3rd Place Greens 95%
• How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (10/4 - 10/10) Above 0 69%

• Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 66%
• Will Donald Trump attend UFC 333? 4%
• Prešov Mayoral Election Winner František Oľha 58%
• Poprad Mayoral Election Winner Anton Danko 78%
• Bratislava Region Governor Election Winner Juraj Droba 97%

and 23 more

• Bulgaria Presidential Election Iliana Iotova 89%
• Next Prime Minister of Serbia? Aleksandar Vučić 68%
• Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil? Flávio Bolsonaro 62%
• Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro? 44%
• Milton, ON Mayoral Election Winner Gord Krantz 48%

and 4 more

• Toronto Mayoral Election Winner Olivia Chow 88%
• Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner Mark Sutcliffe 81%
• How many Israeli elections before government formed? 1 66%
• Oshawa, ON Mayoral Election Winner Tito-Dante Marimpietri 54%
• Vaughan, ON Mayoral Election Winner Steven Del Duca 94%

and 50 more

• Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Gadi Eizenkot 47%
• Israeli Legislative Election Winner Likud 54%
• Israel Election: Likud # of seats? 20-24 38%
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October? 25 bps increase 68%
• Huon Valley Mayoral Election Winner Paul Gibson 32%

and 19 more

• Fed Decision in October? No change 84%
• Winnipeg Mayoral Election Scott Gillingham 63%
• Brandon, MB Mayoral Election Winner Len Isleifson 54%
• Will the UK raise taxes in the October Budget? 78%

• US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? October 5 99%
• Israel military action against Beirut by...? 6%
• Will Iran target Qatar by...? 8%
• Will Iran target an Arab country by...? >99%
• Houthis successfully target shipping by...? October 31 59%

and 18 more

• Will the Clarity Act become law? Before Jan 1, 2028 18%
• US-Iran nuclear deal? Before Jan 20, 2029 39%
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? 14%
• Which states will redistrict before the midterms? Tennessee 99%
• Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...? November 30 77%

and 115 more

• When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave? Before Jan 2027 62%
• Lauren Boebert admits to sex with staffer before midterms? 7%

• Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms? 2%
• Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? ≤47 39%
• Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot? 98%
• Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office before the midterms? 2%
• Will Max Miller leave the House before the midterms? 3%

and 165 more

• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? 32%
• Alaska Senate Election Winner Mary Peltola 73%
• How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections? 22–23 31%
• Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms? Florida 99%
• ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? Not Extended & Democratic Party 93%

and 610 more

• Next Mayor of Mangaung (Bloemfontein)? Werner Pretorius 36%
• Next Mayor of Ekurhuleni (Germiston)? Jongizizwe Dlabathi 27%
• Next Mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth)? Retief Odendaal 36%
• Next Mayor of eThekwini (Durban)? Mkhuleko Hlengwa 32%
• Next Mayor of Buffalo City (East London)? Princess Faku 86%

and 3 more

• Midterms: which issue matters most to voters? Economy and cost of living 51%
• Midterms: Republican share of Black vote? Above 6% 95%
• Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll? Above 34% 77%
• Midterms: Democratic share of 2024 Trump voters? Above 2% 93%
• Midterms: Democratic share of men's vote? Above 40% 94%

and 3 more

• Will Christopher Luxon announce their departure as Prime Minister? 4%
• GOP Black vote share? 10–11% 27%

• New Zealand legislative election winner? Labour Party 56%
• Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government? National + ACT + NZF 45%
• Next Prime Minister of New Zealand? Christopher Luxon 56%
• NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats? 30-34 35%
• New Zealand Election: 2nd Place Labour Party 49%

and 7 more

• Will the midterms happen on time? 88%
• What will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026? Above 4.1 million 94%
• Larger margin of victory: Kansas or Nebraska Senate? Nebraska US Senate 54%
• Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election Winner Lee Fairclough 53%
• Closer Senate Race: Michigan or New Hampshire? Michigan US Senate 68%

and 4 more

• Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking? 21%
• Will the Treasury announce sanctions on a Chinese bank? Before Jan 1, 2027 27%

• Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30? 280M 82%

• Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law? On Nov 13, 2026 92%

• Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner José Maria Neves 79%

• Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell? On Nov 16, 2026 98%

• Will League City vote to keep its Flock cameras? 57%

• When will the PROMISE Act pass the Senate? Before Jan 1, 2027 8%
• When will Hung Cao be confirmed as Secretary of the Navy? Before Dec 19, 2026 26%

• Will courts let the 75-country visa suspension resume? 43%

• Victoria parliamentary election: 3rd place? One Nation 60%

• Taipei Mayor Election Winner Chiang Wan-an 72%
• 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner Kuomintang (KMT) 90%
• New Taipei Mayor Election Winner Su Chiao-hui 52%
• Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner Lai Jui-lung 64%
• Hsinchu City Mayor Election Winner Ann Kao 93%

and 23 more

• Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...? November 30 15%
• Israel military action against Syria by...? November 30 42%
• Will Iran target Oman by...? November 30 10%
• Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...? November 30 62%

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? 10%
• When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA? Before Feb 1, 2028 50%
• When will a court halt an NYC municipal grocery store? Before Jan 1, 2027 18%
• Will Trump visit China? Before Jan 1, 2027 92%
• When will Kimberly Greenwood be confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to Barbados? Before Jun 1, 2027 57%

and 8 more

• Gambia Presidential Election Winner Adama Barrow 71%

• Ohio: Acton's margin vs. Brown's margin? Brown by 0-3 41%
• Closer Senate Race: Alaska or Texas? Texas US Senate 53%
• Closer Senate Race: Maine or Texas? Maine US Senate 51%

• Fed Decision in December? 25 bps increase 72%

• Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026? 33%
• Pete Hoekstra out as US Ambassador to Canada? Before Jan 1, 2028 28%
• Will the House pass a cap on federal student loan interest rates? Before Jan 3, 2027 11%

• How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states? 2 40%
• How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026? At least 10 97%

• Will Ohio's special Senate winner be sworn in on Dec 15? 69%

• When will the Knesset approve a new government? Before Feb 3, 2027 80%

• Iran leader end of 2026? Mojtaba Khamenei 87%
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? October 31 83%
• Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? Nicolás Maduro 77%
• Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Pete Hegseth 26%
• 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms 14%

and 46 more

• Netanyahu out by...? 39%
• Venezuela leader end of 2026? Nicolás Maduro 71%
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? December 31 7%
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? 16%
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? December 31 3%

and 864 more

• Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota? 5%
• Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026? Kansas 92%
• Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? Raphael Warnock 12%
• How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? Above 58 9%
• How many reconciliation bills will be passed in 2026? 1 64%

and 6 more

• NATO x Russia military clash by...? December 31 22%
• Closest Senate race in 2026? Iowa 18%
• Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? Maine 37%
• Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? Texas 37%
• How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? At least 182 89%

and 15 more

• Will the SAVE Act become law? 3%
• Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? 7%
• How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026? 37% 94%
• Will Trump restrict SNAP benefits? 12%
• Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026? Tina Kotek 95%

and 6 more

• How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026? Above 30 28%
• Who will be the next UN Secretary-General? Rebeca Grynspan 63%
• Blue wave in 2026? 85%
• Blue tsunami in 2026? 53%
• Will NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November? 22%

• How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027? Below 36% 72%
• How high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027? Above 45% 7%

• Next President of Kosovo? Bekim Sejdiu 35%
• Next President of Estonia? Ülle Madise 97%
• Will BRICS invite a new member to join them before 2027? 9%
• Will Putin visit the U.S. in 2026? 16%
• How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026? Exactly 1 84%

and 3 more

• Who will be a part of the next government of Saxony-Anhalt? AfD 50%

• Nigerian Presidential Election Winner Bola Tinubu 71%
• Nigerian Senate Election Winner APC 75%
• Nigerian House of Representatives Election Winner APC 77%

• Alberta referendum: Remain vote share? At least 60% 95%

• Closest Governor race in 2026? Georgia 20%

• Serbian parliamentary election: Student List vote share? At least 30% 89%

• Fed Decision in January? No change 65%
• Elon Musk out as Project Meridian co-lead by January 27? 18%

• How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Above 52 35%
• How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Below 193 28%
• How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? 230-233 17%
• How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? 48 17%
• How high will inflation get in 2026? Above 4.5% 13%

and 25 more