Where does this market trade?

On Polymarket, a regulated prediction market (Polymarket). Parlay the People shows its prices; it is research, not betting advice.

Polymarket

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

As of October 5, 2026, traders on Polymarket give it a 16% chance. $196K traded in the last 24 hours, $71.7M in all.

Chance of Yes: 16%
24 hours: no change
Traded today: $196K
Traded in all: $71.7M
Closes: January 1, 2027

The odds

Yes16%

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%6:03 AM6:03 PM6:03 AM16% Chance of Yes

The price of a Yes contract, read as the chance the market resolves Yes. One reading an hour.

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Prices are Polymarket's own (displayed price), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.